While the big countries talk, the small island states suffer

“To deny climate change is to procrastinate while the earth sinks; it is to deny a truth we have just lived. It is to mock thousands of my compatriots who in a few hours without a roof over their heads will watch the night descend on Dominica, in fear of sudden mudslides . . . and what the next hurricane may bring. My fellow-leaders, there is no more time for conversation. There is little time left for action. While the big countries talk, the small island nations suffer. We need action and we need it now.”

The Honourable Roosevelt Skerrit, Prime Minister of Dominica at the 72nd session of the United Nations General Assembly on September 23, 2017

Hurricane Maria

The hurricane season in the North Atlantic Basin starts on June 1 and ends on November 30 each year. A week before the official start of the hurricane season the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a forecast which predicted an 'above average' hurricane season for 2017. This forecast supported the expected weak El Nino, warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea and a weaker vertical wind shear in these regions. In other words, an active hurricane season with more named tropical storms and more major hurricanes was highly likely. In August, NOAA updated its predictions stating that there would be 14 to 19 named storms and of these 5 to 9 would become hurricanes.  

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook (NOAA, May 2017).

Over the past few weeks we have had to deal with the aftermath of three Category 5 hurricanes in quick succession in the Caribbean and the United States - Harvey, Irma and Maria. Irma of the 185+ miles per hour winds and double eyewall structure and Maria of the 12 hour strengthening from Category 2 to Category 5. The destruction to infrastructure, economy and social fabric that these hurricanes have caused cannot be denied. The Dutch Army and French Police had to be called in to bring order to the island of St. Maarten after Irma left the island without electricity, water, critical infrastructure and a working airport.  

Double  eyewalls  seen in  Hurricane Irma 

Interestingly, the debate on whether climate change is real and whether it has resulted in these hurricanes is again at the forefront. On one side the sceptics harping over the accuracy of climate models and on the other some diehards suggesting that the increased seismic activity in Mexico and the Pacific is attributed to climate change (though there studies that suggest such a link but let's not get sidetracked). To add more fuel to the fire, various articles noted that major US TV networks failed to contextualize the connection between human induced climate change and extreme weather events like the recent category 5 hurricanes. Meanwhile, head of the US Environmental Protection Agency  Scott Pruitt admonished journalists for asking about the connection between climate change and the size and strength of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey, telling them that such questions were misplaced and very insensitive to victims of the storms. 

Climate change is still an incredibly polarizing issue, especially when money, politics and business interests are concerned but for small islands climate change is intrinsically linked to development and survival. While the debates about whether climate change is real or how much can human influence be attributed to climate change or the political correctness of discussing climate change in the media ensue,  whether or not we experience more tropical storms (and scientists continue to research this) we know that the intensity of storms are increasing due to a changing climate. (The IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, indicated that it is likely  that the intensity of tropical storms in the North Atlantic would increase.)

A stronger tropical storm means stronger winds, more rain and a bigger storm surge which can compound the impacts of coastal flooding due to sea level rise. A stronger tropical storm means more severe associated damages to property and infrastructure and adverse impacts to human life and well-being, economic activity and security. We have seen that happen over the past few weeks. Barbuda, for example, which has been continuously inhabited for over 300 years was rendered uninhabitable after Hurricane Irma, with Prime Minister Gaston Browne stating that the cost of rebuilding Barbuda would be between $250 to 300 million USD. On Dominica, the storm damaged 85 to 90 percent of homes and wiped out communication links and infrastructure with Prime Minister Skerrit stating that swathes of the island looked like a war zone. In Puerto Rico, the entire island is still without electricity with engineers saying that is could take months to be restored, with many communities still without water and telephone services. 

The climate is changing and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) like the Caribbean islands are already feeling the impacts. SIDS have negligible historical or current responsibility for global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, contributing less than 1 % annually. Climate change will impact livelihoods, coastal settlements, infrastructure, ecosystems and economic stability in SIDS. However, hurricanes like Irma and Maria pose an existential threat to many SIDS, given their intrinsic physical and socioeconomic characteristics which render them highly vulnerable to climate change.  The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (5Cs) estimates that sea level rise of three feet would cause considerable damage to over one fifth of the airports, seaports and tourist resorts in the Caribbean. This is especially disturbing since tourism is the primary economic sector of most Caribbean SIDS such as St. Maarten, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico etc. Moreover, Hurricanes Irma and Maria have displaced many persons in the Caribbean from their homes highlighting the potential issue of climate refugees.

The damage caused by Hurricane Irma on Barbuda.

In December 2015, the global community agreed on the historic Paris Agreement (which entered into force on 4 November 2016) which represents the first universal treaty on climate change in which all countries must undertake ambitious efforts towards supporting a low carbon future. Earlier that year, in September, the UN Sustainable Development Goals were adopted by world leaders which seek to mobilize efforts to address poverty, inequity and climate change. The SDGs and the Paris Agreement formally recognize the critical and complex relationship between sustainable development and climate change. Specifically, SDG 13 highlights the need to integrate climate change considerations into sustainable development in order to ensure long term, climate compatible development.

Climate finance is an important element of the Paris Agreement, with much of the financing to be channelled through the Green Climate Fund. The Fund has been established and the first set of projects have started to be funded. Whether or not hurricane ravaged Caribbean SIDS will be able to access GCF funds for their rebuilding efforts remains to be seen. Antigua and Barbuda and Dominica have indicated their intent for sustainable infrastructure that is more climate resilient to mitigate any future climate-induced natural disasters.  The Paris Agreement  also includes loss and damage, the inevitable consequences of human-induced climate change. How this is expected to work, is yet to be worked out at the international climate negotiations Hurricane-affected Caribbean SIDS would have a case to rally for fleshing out the mechanics of loss and damage, particularly the finance aspects, which could aid in their rebuilding efforts.

While the big countries talk, the small island nations suffer. We need action and we need it now. Not just action from big countries. But from small islands, like Trinidad and Tobago. We need our Government, our private sector, our non-governmental sector, our citizens to continue to assist our Caribbean neighbours with the hurricane relief and rebuilding efforts. We also need to start a national conversation on climate change and its impacts on our economy, our livelihoods, our health, our infrastructure so we can really understand this issue and how it can affect us, our families and our communities and start developing and implementing solutions together so we can act collectively to become more resilient to a changing climate.

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